Recession Probability Soars as Inflation Worsens - 20 iunie 2022

Economists on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28% in the Journal’s last survey in April and at 18% in January. Since the Journal began asking the question in mid-2005, a 44% recession probability is seldom seen outside of an actual recession. In December 2007, the month that the 2007-to-2009 recession began, economists assigned a 38% probability. In February 2020, when the last recession began, they assigned a 26% probability. 

Economists expect unemployment to rise as the Fed raises rates, although they see it staying at relatively low levels by historical comparison. On average, they forecast unemployment rising from 3.6% in May to an average of 3.7% at the end of 2022 and 4.2% at the end of 2023.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-probability-soars-as-inflation-worsens-11655631002